Wheat is holding its own on Thursday morning, up across all three markets. The wheat complex ended Wednesday on a mixed note, as the hard red contracts were busy posting slight strength. Chicago SRW wheat was fractionally lower to close out the session. KC HRW contracts posted slight 1 to 2 cent gains at the close. July KC wheat had another 16 delivery notices overnight. MPLS spring wheat was up 1 to 2 cents on Wednesday. Rains across parts of the TX panhandle to NE may slow some harvest progress in the next week, with MT/ND remaining dry.

President Trump issued more letters to countries on Wednesday notifying them of the August 1 increase in tariffs, notably a 20% tariff on the Philippines. 

USDA will release their weekly Export Sales report this morning with traders surveyed by Reuters looking for 200,000 to 600,000 MT in wheat sales.

Crop Production data will be updated on Friday, with a Bloomberg survey of analysts showing all wheat production tightening by 14 mbu to 1.907 bbu, mainly on the lower harvested acres found at the end of June. Winter wheat is seen at 1.362 bbu, down 19 mbu from last month, with spring wheat seen at mbu and durum at 78 mbu. Wheat stock for the end of 2025/26 are seen at 894, just 4 mbu lower vs. last month.

Strategie Grain estimates the EU soft wheat crop at 130.7 MMT for 2025/26, which is unchanged from the month prior.

Jul 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.42 3/4, down 1/4 cent, currently unch

Sep 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.47, down 3/4 cent, currently up 3 3/4 cents

Jul 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.05 1/2, up 2 cents, currently unch

Sep 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.24, up 1 1/2 cents, currently up 6 1/4 cents

Jul 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.14, up 1 cent, currently unch

Sep 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.31 1/2, up 1 3/4 cent, currently up 5 1/2 cents